2 Mar

CANCELLED – First-Time Homebuyer Incentive

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Youtube Link

First-Time Homebuyer Incentive Cancelled

Will there EVER be a First-Time Home Buyer Program that WORKS?!

Because this last program (CMHC’s) “The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive Program” is/was horrendous!

Why is/was it so bad?

Too restrictive, didn’t help homebuyers with qualifying, and little benefit.

This program is/was designed for First time home buyers who ALREADY qualified for the mortgage. Only AFTER THEY QUALIFIED were they provided with a 5% or 10% interest-free loan for a portion of their equity.

Due to the upper limit lending restrictions, the benefits of taking an interest free loan with this program worked out to a mortgage savings of $150 – $300/m. The downside, well you would have to give up a portion of your equity.

The additional downside, well, you also have to qualify 100% ON YOUR OWN for the purchase of your new home before CMHC decides to step in and offer a “helping hand.”

Think of it like this, you’ve been training for years to run a marathon, and you finally decide this is the year I’m doing it! The race day comes, and you’re prepared and ready to go. As you’re running you surprise yourself, hey this isn’t so bad, just a little further to go! Then.. up ahead you see the finish line, only 50 meters left! You think to yourself, I just need to keep on pushing only a little more to go, but wait, table full of baked goods appears out of nowhere and a massive sugar rush comes over you right at the very end! There’s no way you can continue running another 25m without having a delicious cinnamon bun!

Unbelievable, right? Well, that’s essentially what this program is/was.

Here’s the good news, CMHC can now recalibrate and focus on building out an incentive program that actually makes sense. Hopefully one that helps first time home buyers qualify.

25 Feb

Simple way to forecast the inflation rate for 2024

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Youtube Video - Forcasting Inflation

Youtube Video – Forecasting Inflation

Forecasting the Inflation Rate for 2024

Here is a simple way to forecast the inflation rate for 2024 – conservatively, of course.

First, grab the CPI data from Rateinflation.com and paste it into an excel sheet.

Then, look for some patterns in these numbers. Notice how the CPI numbers change from one month to the next.

I noticed CPI data increased A LOT 🚀 in the first half of the year, but then remains relatively flat in the latter half.

Next, I subtracted the CPI highs and lows within each year to determine the range.

2022 had a range of 8.7 (145.3 – 154)
2023 had a range of 4.9 (153.9 – 158.8)⬇️

This tells me the rate at which CPI is rising is trending downwards.

A conservative forecast would then mean we expect a similar range to last year (4.9).

I then used CPI from January (158.3) as my base for the year and assumed by August we’ll see CPI increase by 4.9 to 163.2. I also assumed CPI would then remain relatively flat from August to December. (Similar pattern to the last 2 years).

Now that we have our data, we can find the inflation rate. Apply the following formula: (Month 2024-month 2023)/month 2023

Example: (January 2024 – January 2023) / January 2023
= (158.3 – 153.9) / 153.9
= 2.86%

After doing this exercise I was pretty surprised to see this forecast was in-line with the Bank of Canada’s projections:

“The Bank projects that inflation will stay around 3% through the first half of 2024, returning to target in 2025.”

This is a pretty fun exercise to try, very curious to see what actual numbers look like in the coming months 👀

20 Feb

The ‘Base Year Effect’ & Inflation Decreases to 2.85%

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Youtube Clip - Base Year Effect

Link to Base Year Effect youtube movie

Inflation is down to 2.85%, but CPI remains 158.3

Last month I sent an email showing why inflation had increased even though CPI number had decreased.

And now today’s inflation report shows inflation decreasing, but the CPI number remains the same as last month, why is this happening?

To explain this better, let’s do a quick recap on how to calculate inflation.

Inflation Rate: The rate-of-change on prices of goods, and the prices of goods is represented by the Consumer Price Index (CPI).

Inflation Rate = (Current Month CPI – Previous Year’s Month CPI) / Previous Year’s Month

Base Year Effect Image

Image of Canada’s CPI Data from 2020 to 2024

Economic Market Report

The inflation rate decreasing is awesome news and we are already seeing bond yields correcting from the recent run-up.

However, we are still a long ways away from the 2% target, and personally I’d be shocked if we saw the Bank of Canada decrease interest rates before July

On February 29th, the Q4 GDP Report is being released and this will likely show the economy outperforming the Bank of Canada’s original expectation due to a strong December.

A stronger-than-expected GDP Report will cause the bond yields to spike upwards momentarily. Any refinances or purchases should get their pre-approvals/rate holds in ahead of time.

The Royal Bank released a statement regarding the upcoming GDP Shock: (Read this)

Bottom Line: The reacceleration of growth towards the end of 2023 should be taken with a grain of salt – early GDP estimates are revision-prone and a lot of the strength in November was due to one off factors such as recoveries from earlier factory shutdowns and strike activities that are unlikely to be repeated in the following months.

Taking the advance December estimate at face value, growth in Q4 is tracking an annualized increase of 1.2% which is above our tracking for a small decline. That however would still mark a sixth consecutive quarterly decline when growth is counted on a per-capita basis, as population growth continues to surge. Overall we continue to expect pressures from elevated interest rates to curb consumer demand, stalling growth in both output and inflation over the first half of 2024 before the BoC is expected to cut rates in June.

Summary:

It seems we are still heading towards an economic slowdown even though the GDP report will likely be stronger-than-expected on February 29th.

Get your pre-approvals on purchases, renewals or refinances in before February 29th as we may see interest rates spike after the GDP Report is released.

Adam Sale

778-215-4121

5 Feb

Canada Extends Foreign Buyer Ban until 2027

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Youtube Link

Canada Foreign Buyer Ban – Youtube

📣HUgE NeWS! Foreign buyer Ban extended until 2027!! 📣

I 💯 support this move and think this should be the law moving forward. Canadian real estate should be reserved for people who live, work and pay taxes in Canada. 💸

Will the extension to the foreign buyer-ban make much of a difference⁉️

Probably not.

CMHC released their transaction results for 2021 (before the initial buyer ban), and it showed only 2% of all real estate transactions were from non-residents, and I’d argue this number is likely lower in Vancouver as there is a very steep foreign buyers tax of 20%❗️

Interestingly, this report also showed 4.3% (1/23) of homes in Vancouver were owned by non-residents. 2021.. What are your thoughts regarding non-residents owning homes in Vancouver? 🏠

26 Jan

5 ‘Terrifying’ Facts for Renters in Canada

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Link to Youtube Video

Youtube – 5 Facts about renting in Canada

It’s no shocker, rental prices in Canada are Insane!

Recent data shows national rental prices increased by 8.6% this year , and many are left wondering if things will get better in the future. Unfortunately, data suggests higher housing costs in the years to come..

Here are 5 Terrifying Facts Renters are Facing

  1. Canada’s Population is growing by 3.2% each year. This statistic includes Permanent Residents, non-permanent residents, foreign students, temporary workers.  Source:Bloomberg
  2. Housing Starts are at a similar level to where they were in 1972. In 1972, Canada’s population was 24.7 million. On average, we are building 250k – 270k housing units each year.  Source: StatsCanada
  3. For every 5 people coming to Canada we are building 1 unit of housing. This number is based on current population growth of  +1,250,000 population / 250,000 housing units. This statistic includes Permanent Residents, non-permanent residents, foreign students, temporary workers (anyone 15yrs and older).
  4. Rental Prices are affected by population growth. National rental prices increased by 8.6% in 2023 and 12.1% increase in 2022. Source:Rentals.ca
  5. 41.7% of all units created in BC are Rental Purpose. We are transitioning from an Owner’s economy to a Renter’s economy. Lifelong renters will be benefit from increasing the number of rental units meanwhile first-time home-buyers will find it even harder to get into the real estate market. In the years to come, housing prices will increase due to lack of supply available for purchase. – Source: BCHousing

Bonus Scary Fact – CMHC says Canada needs to create 3.45 million housing units by 2030 to lower housing costs if Canada continues to allow 500,000 new permanent residents in per year. At our current building rate (250k units/yr) it will take 12.7 years to achieve this goal. Source: CMHC

19 Jan

How Vancouver’s Housing Market Defies Recessions

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

How Vancouver’s Housing Market Defies Recessions

You might think that a recession would automatically lead to a drop in housing prices, especially in a city like Vancouver where the cost of living is notoriously high. But you would be wrong. In fact, Vancouver’s housing market has shown remarkable resilience and even growth in the face of economic downturns. How is this possible? Let me show you the surprising facts I discovered while researching this topic.

What is a Recession?

Before we dive into the data, let’s clarify what we mean by a recession. A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP (economic output) and an increasing unemployment rate. There is no fixed threshold for the unemployment rate to indicate a recession, but historically, we tend to see recessions when unemployment is in the high 6% range.

The Mistake I Made

I assumed that finding a correlation between recessions and housing prices would be easy. After all, it makes sense that people would have less money to spend on housing when the economy is struggling. But I was wrong. I made a common mistake: I looked at Vancouver’s housing prices in relation to the Canadian economy as a whole. But that was too broad. I needed to narrow down my data to BC only.

Canada and BC unemployment rate from 1990 to May 2023

Canada and BC unemployment rate from 1990 to December 2023

Unemployment Rates

Canada is a huge country, and each province has a different mix of industries. This means that some provinces are more vulnerable to recessions than others. For example, remember when oil prices crashed in 2016? Alberta’s unemployment rate soared to 8% and their real estate market plummeted; meanwhile, Vancouver was enjoying a housing boom. This made me wonder: how does BC’s unemployment rate compare to the national average?

The answer is: much better.

Since 2005, BC’s unemployment rate has been consistently lower than Canada’s national average, and this is largely due to the amount of investment BC received since 2002. In the early 2000s, BC started to diversify its economy and boost its industries. BC now has a robust and balanced economy that offers jobs in mining, construction, natural gas, forestry, technology, film, tourism, and more. This means that BC is less affected by industry slowdowns and more resilient to recessions.

Lowest Variable Rate Available from 1990 to Dec 2023

Lowest Variable Rate Available from 1990 to Dec 2023

Interest Rates

Another factor that influences housing prices is interest rates. There is a well-known saying that goes: “When interest rates are rising, house prices are falling.” This is true in most parts of the province, but not necessarily in Vancouver.

Vancouver’s housing market is proving to withstand higher interest rates without showing a noticeable decline in prices, and in most neighborhoods, these prices are continuing to slowly increase.

It is only when interest rates exceed 6% that we notice a slowdown in sales activity. Slower sales activity over a long enough time-frame creates a build-up of supply leading to a decline in housing prices.

Graph of Vancouver's housing prices in relation to Interest rates and unemployment rates

Greater Vancouver’s housing prices in relation to Interest rates and unemployment rates

The Pattern

Based on these two factors: BC’s unemployment rate and interest rates, we see a pattern emerge in Vancouver’s Housing Prices:

  • Unemployment rate exceeds 6%, and interest rates are under 6% – Housing Prices are Stagnant or Rising slightly
  • Interest rates above 6%, and unemployment rate under 6% – Housing Prices are Stagnant or Rising slightly
  • Unemployment rate & interest rates above 6% – Housing Prices Decline.

To illustrate these patterns in more detail, I have overlaid the variable interest rate and BC’s unemployment rate on top of Vancouver’s historical housing price data. Pay attention to how the RED LINE interacts with these two factors. The RED LINE represents townhouses, which are a better representation of the overall Vancouver market due to a larger market. The detached housing market is represented by the BLUE LINE and sees wild swings in valuations due to the smaller market size (think affordability).

Vancouver’s Housing History: How It Survived Recessions and Boomed

 

Let’s look at the last 33 years of Vancouver’s housing prices and how they were affected by recessions, interest rates, and other factors.

1990 – 1993 Recession

This was the most severe recession in recent history, as BC’s unemployment rate reached 9% and interest rates soared to 14% before falling to 6% by 1993. As a result, housing prices in Vancouver dropped, but only for a short while. Townhouses and condos bounced back by 1992, and detached houses followed suit by 1993.

1994 – 2000 Low Economic Growth

This was a period of sluggish economic growth and low investment in BC, as interest rates and unemployment remained above 6%. Vancouver’s housing prices stagnated during this time, showing little change or growth.

2000 – 2008 Economic Expansion

This was a golden era for BC’s economy, as it attracted investment and diversified its industries. The unemployment rate dropped from 6.5% to 4%, and interest rates also went down from 6% to 4%. This created a favorable environment for housing prices, which increased by more than 50% in this period.

Financial Crisis – 2008 – 2010

This recession was primarily caused by Canada’s biggest trading partner (USA). As trade slowed between Canada and the US, BC’s unemployment rate peaked (briefly) at 6.8% and housing prices fell by 10% – 15%. They reached their lowest point in 2009, but recovered quickly by 2010. The Bank of Canada lowered interest rates to 2% to stimulate the economic growth, this helped revive the housing market. By 2010 housing prices recovered.

Housing Boom – 2010 – 2016

With unemployment rate in the high 5% range and ultra-low interest rates, Greater Vancouver’s townhome/condo prices (surprisingly) remained relatively stable until 2015. From 2015 onwards, lack of supply, low unemployment rates, and low interest rates created a housing boom in all segments.

The Outlier: Stress-Test – Late 2016

The stress-test was a policy change that rocked the national housing market, as the banks introduced stricter lending guidelines to reduce the risk of a financial crisis due to high income-to-debt levels. The stress-test makes it difficult for borrowers to get a mortgage from a prime lender that is greater than five times their annual income. This policy created uncertainty in real-estate market leading to slower sales activity. It took a little over a year for supply to build-up and materialize in Vancouver’s housing prices. For the first time in 30 years, Vancouver’s housing prices were affected purely based on government policy.

Covid Recession and Housing Boom – 2020 – 2022

This was the shortest recession on record, due to the covid lockdowns, lasting from February to April 2020. The Bank of Canada cut interest rates to spur economic activity, and this led to a surge in housing prices due to cheap debt. However, in 2022, inflation became a problem, and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 4.75% over 18 months, cooling the housing market due to higher borrowing costs and economic uncertainty.

Where Do We Go from Here?

One thing we’ve learned, BC has been busy diversifying its economy since the 2000s and this is not the same economy it used to be in the 1990s. This diversification adds a layer of protection against economic swings. For instance, Canada’s average unemployment rate is at 5.8% while BC’s unemployment rate is only at 5.3%.

If Canada faces a mild recession this year, BC may be insulated enough to not feel its effects on housing prices. In addition, while interest rates are currently at 6.40%, they are expected to decrease in mid-2024, and we are currently seeing many fixed-rate specials in the 5% range.

If I had to make a bet, I would wager on Vancouver’s housing prices gaining momentum throughout 2024.

 

8 Dec

Bank of Canada Holds Rates at 5% / Economic Cracks are Forming

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Bank of Canada held rates at 5% – Prime Rate remains at 7.20%.

Inflation continues to decrease, and we should be within the Bank’s 2% inflation target range in a couple months.

The higher rates are having a negative impact on the economy and cracks are beginning to form:

  • Third quarter GDP numbers show the economy contracted by 1%. 
  • Unemployment numbers are continuing to trend higher, currently at 8%

It feels like we are setting the stage for a mild recession in 2024.

The biggest challenge with this recession will be the speed at which the Bank of Canada can lower interest rates without increasing inflation.

Economists are predicting we will see the first round of rate cuts as early as March. Personally, I feel this is too optimistic. I am leaning towards the first round of rate cuts in June/July 2024.

The longer the Bank of Canada can put off the rate-cuts, the better chance we have of keeping inflation at bay.

Some relief is on the horizon!


Mortgage Update: 

We are getting weekly updates from lenders with lower rates. The rates you are quoted today will likely be lower 1-month from now. 

If you have a renewal coming up, please let me know 

I will send you a list of market rates, and where we expect them to be when you renew.

The variable rate remains unchanged. Economists expect the Bank of Canada to decrease the variable rate by 2% over the next 2 years. 

Vancouver Real-Estate: 

The lower-mainland naturally slows down in December as buyers naturally shift their focus to the holiday season.

There is no better time than the holidays to find a deal as many buyers are too pre-occupied to be going to open houses on the weekends. 

Don’t expect this lull in the market to last long. 

As soon as middle of January comes the Spring Market quickly picks up speed. When the lower rates hit mainstream news we will have a recipe for a very busy market in 2024.

East & West Vancouver have shifted into a Balanced Market.

North Vancouver is still a Seller’s Market. 

In my next email I will provide you with some common themes to housing prices during a recession – it’s not what you think!

21 Jul

How to Time the Market: Low Sales Volume Indicates Lower Prices

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

It appears the Vancouver real-estate market is setting up for a slow-down this fall as interest rates continue climbing, causing people to qualify for less and scaring many buyers away from the market.

A couple key reports to keep an eye on to confirm if we are heading for a slowdown are:

  • Unemployment Report: August 4, 2023 – If the unemployment rate goes down, then the bank of Canada will stay the course and raise rates again in September
  • CPI Inflation Report: Tuesday August 15, 2023 – If core inflation continues to stay in the 3.6%-3.8% range, then Bank of Canada will continue to stay the course and raise rates again in September
  • Bank of Canada Interest Rate Announcement – Wednesday, September 6th – If rates raise again, mortgage rates will be in the mid-high 6% range.

How to Time the Market

Unlike other real-estate markets in Canada, it is extremely tough for the Vancouver market to turn into a buyers market when the demand to live here is so high due to immigration and lack of supply.

Even if/when the market starts to favour buyers more than sellers the realestate prices do not decrease much unless you are looking at properties priced on the higher end of the spectrum (+1.5 mil), and more so in the (+3 million).

One of the indicators to keep an eye on to spot the best deal is Volume of Recent sales (units sold), such as a condo/townhome/detached house. Pay attention the specific type of property you are wanting to purchase as each of these units have are their own market.

Generally, when interest rates are at their highest (such as last November/December/January) volume of sales (units sold) were at their lowest, leading to less competition and lower prices. Of course, this is most noticeable on the higher-end of the price range where the amount of buyers is the smallest.

Based on the recent rate increases we are setting up for another slow-down in the second half of the year, especially if the Bank of Canada raises rates again on September 6th.

Should you decide to purchase when interest rates are at their highest and volumes are at their lowest, understand this will likely be the time you will get the best price, but it will also be the time you will be paying the highest mortgage costs.

In this situation, it is better to go with a shorter term loan (1-yr/2-yr) even though it will have a higher payment than the 5-yr fixed. After your term is complete you will *hopefully* be able to renew into a much lower interest rate. Then you will have bought at a great price and a ultimately have a lower-rate mortgage when viewed over a 5-yr timeframe.

In Vancouver, it is virtually impossible to receive a low-mortgage rate and a low-price on a home. If you can afford it, I feel it is better to receive a low-price on a home and pay a higher mortgage rate instead of receiving a low-mortgage payment and paying a higher price.

The reason I believe this is simple, when rates decrease you immediately see home prices increase, and as home prices increase your home equity also increases.

For example: Lets say someone who’s shopping for a home can only qualify for a property for $750,000 when mortgage rates are at 5.34% this will create $ 4,313/m payment. If rates drop to 4.34%, that same person would now be able to qualify for a purchase price of $825,000. This puts pressure on sellers to increase their home price as they know their home is affordable to a larger market.

Now, if the person had purchased the property for $750,000 and in 3-yrs time their home is now worth $825,000, they would have an additional $75,000 in owner-equity, and only paid $14,580 in extra interest.

I came up with $14,580 by taking a the additional interest charged on a 3-yr mortgage payment on $750,000 purchase price at an interest rate of 5.34% vs 4.34% ($4,313 – $3,908 = $405 x 36 months)

19 Jul

Inflation Report 2.8% / Bank of Canada Petition to Pause Interest Rates

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

Great news!! The Consumer Price Index report (inflation report) was released today and shows inflation slowing to 2.8%. Over the last 6-months (January to June) the CPI index has only ticked upwards by 3.3 points as opposed to 2022 January to June’s CPI index increase of 7.6%.

This is an excellent sign, but we’re not out of the weeds yet. We still need to see the unemployment report released on August 4th showing the unemployment rate increasing. It is very possible we won’t get the news we’d like on August 4th as high-schoolers will now be out of school, and will likely be looking for part-time work.

Looking at the numbers, it appears we are going to hit our targets in November/December. If this is the case, *hopefully* we will see some rate relief in Q1/Q2 of 2024.

Bank of Canada Petition to Pause Interest Rates

The Bank of Canada stated they are considering rates another 0.25% in September, or later this year. After speaking with many past clients it seems these rate increases could be enough to push many Canadians over the edge.

Over the last 18 months, interest rates have increased by 4.75% and it appears to be working to slow inflation, but when is enough-enough?

I created this petition to help Canadians voice their concerns that they Bank of Canada needs to pause (or lower) interest rates, and wait for these rate increases to have their full effect on the economy.

If you would like to see the Bank of Canada pause their interest rate hikes, please consider signing this petition.

Sign the Petition Here!

If you have any mortgage related questions, please contact me at:

Adam Sale Mortgages

adamjsale@gmail.com

778-215-4121

2 May

When do you need to purchase Mortgage Default Insurance?

General

Posted by: Adam Sale

When do you need to purchase Mortgage Default Insurance?

Mortgage Default Insurance is added to a mortgage when a borrower is purchasing a property with a down-payment less than 20% or when a property is higher risk to the lender, such as a micro-suite, rural location or mobile home.

Mortgage default insurance is designed to protect the lender in the event the borrower defaults on their loan. The borrower is required to pay for the insurance premium. The insurance premium can be paid when completing the property transfer, or added to the total mortgage.

Once the mortgage is protected from the risk of default, the borrower is awarded the lowest mortgage rates possible for the life of their loan, or until they refinance the mortgage.

Mortgage default insurance follows the mortgage amount, and can be transferred to a new lender or transferred to a new property.

There are 3 mortgage insurers in Canada: CMHC, Canada Guaranty and Sagen.

To discuss mortgage insurance in more details, contact me at:

Adam Sale Mortgages
Cell: 778-215-4121
Email: Adamsale@dominionlending.ca